Fantasy baseball hidden gems: Yainer Diaz, Andrew McCutchen and more underrated Statcast studs

We can use Statcast/Baseball Savant to find one stat to make a recommendation — or create one stat, like we did with WIZZOS (whiffs in zone plus swings out of zone for pitchers). But today we’re going to filter a bunch of stats into single player recommendations.

Let’s explain.

The first thing we wanted was a low strikeout percentage. In today’s game that’s below 20%.

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Next we wanted a solid barrel rate, which today is over 7% (remember, our hitters have more balls in play given low Ks so their barrel rates are larger samples).

Then we look for hitters who pull the ball at a high rate, which translates to over 40%.

And we don’t like grounders so we want a robust fly-ball rate, anything north of 30%.

We also needed hitters with at least 100 plate appearances.

This gave us 11 hitters in all of baseball. The list includes stars that are 100% rostered and unlikely to be traded (in fantasy): Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, Nolan Arenado.

But there are lesser names, too, including three hitters who are widely available (based on Yahoo! rostership, typically 12-team leagues) and three others who are rostered in far over 50% but probably not properly valued by their GMs. Let’s focus on them, starting with the widely available hitters.

Yainer Diaz (20% ownership) has catcher qualification and is a very good hitter, obviously, given all these boxes that he’s checking. His expected average is .275 with a .560 expected slugging (actual .275/.504). He’s DHing in absence of Yordan Alvarez. This is like when the tight end is in the slot on third down in fantasy football. If Houston thinks this much of Diaz as a hitter, we probably should too. He’s 13.5% barrels with 41.4% pull and 36% fly balls. His Ks are just 17.3%. He’s the No. 1 recommendation in this article.

Let me explain here why barrel rates are so much more meaningful with low K% hitters. If you have 100 at-bats and whiff 99 times and hit one ringing double, guess what your barrel rate is? If you said 100%, you get a gold star. Low K hitters have more batted ball events as a percentage of at-bats so their barrel rates mean more.

Andrew McCutchen (34%) is on the trade block now but is a good hitter this year (actual .278/.435 average/slugging). He’s limited Ks (though he’s just under at 19.9%), is barreling the ball well enough (7.3%, fine, though no Diaz), pulling nearly half the time (48.3%, great) and has a decent fly-ball rate (31.5%). I’m surprised his expected ISO is so low at just .157 — actually below average power (expected slugging just .421). McCutchen is just squeaking by too many of our thresholds. If he gets traded, he’ll presumably be in a better run environment and thus better able to translate his top OBP into runs. I’m way more excited about Diaz than McCutchen but McCutchen has a higher floor/more expected at-bats.

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Harrison Bader (37%) is slugging better than ever (29 homers per 162 games) and producing runs (103 RBI per 162 games). He’s stealing 34 bases pro-rated for a full season, too. These are things we want the counting categories. He’s 29 and probably just peaking in power. His rates are 12.6% Ks (great), 8% barrels (good given the low Ks), 42% pull and 37% fly balls. We love that. He’s batting at the top of the lineup of late even though he rarely walks. I urge you to get him if he’s free.

So that’s it for the guys likely available on waivers. But there is a group of hitters I suspect you can trade for at lower than their expected value for the remainder of the season.

Christian Walker gets no respect. Okay, he gets a little respect. He’s long been a Statcast darling and is constantly touted here by me. He’s come into his own but is still just pick 108 the past six weeks in the 15 NFBC rest-of-season drafts that have taken place (Note: NFBC just opened up a bunch of second-half Gladiator leagues — the best ball format is fantastic if you have a second-half itch to hit reset). He’s easily a top 50 hitter in a surprising Arizona lineup. I’d say he’s actually a top 30 hitter. In 12-team mixed leagues, he’s earned $23, which is as much as Matt Olsen and more than Paul Goldschmidt, who are drafted 41st and 27th, respectively, of late. Since May 1, Walker is slashing .300/.374/.583 with 32 runs and 35 RBI in 49 games (12 homers, three steals). His K% in the period is 15%. In June, his K% is 8.8% and he’s hitting .367 and slugging .644. Why is Goldschmidt better than Walker? I have to say that I find the expected stats of Walker super low. Insulting low. But I must note them (.260/.464).

Jonah Heim is the catcher MVP this year. That 48.1 pull rate and plus-40% fly-ball rate are golden. He’s just 17.9% Ks. You have to expect catchers to wear down and he doesn’t DH much at all and there’s no real spot for him to do that. However, all catchers are likely to wear down as the season progresses. This was a big issue for Heim in 2022 but that was also his first year playing significant MLB games. Bottom line: Heim is a top offensive catcher and should remain one for 2023 and beyond, especially in a very deep and productive Texas lineup.

Jake Fraley (62% rostership) is outperforming his expected stats but he’s still a valuable hitter. He doesn’t play against fellow lefties even though he’s mostly unlucky with them (1-for-19 on balls in play). But you’re just hoping for the park and the platoon advantage and a decent lineup to allow you to generate good stats, especially in deeper OBP leagues. Fraley is a target in 15-team leagues for sure.

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Here’s the complete chart (I also posted it below). And here’s the complete list of players from which that chart was made.

Salfino's hidden treasures

(Top photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

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